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The Fed’s Clarity Extends the Pain for Gold and Silver
Ahead of the May decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, I concluded that the stars had aligned for a potential (sharp) relief rally for the SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares...
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Forex Critical – Time to End Bearishness on the Australian Dollar
I have been bearish on the Australian dollar (FXA) for quite some time now. My main driver was a reversal in fortunes for soaring iron ore prices that in turn weighed down the currency. Iron ore prices...
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Forex Critical – Canadian Dollar: High Odds of Rate Hike Equal High Impact of...
Going into last week’s report on Canadian employment, currency speculators retreated further from what was a record net short position against the Canadian dollar (FXC) less than two months prior. Net...
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The Bank of Canada Confirms Easy Money Ain’t Gettin’ No Easier
I greatly under-estimated the confidence of the Bank of Canada (BoC) when I mapped out the possibilities for a currency market that highly anticipated a rate hike from the Bank. In its latest statement...
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Forex Critical – Debelle of Clarity Pushes the Australian Dollar Off Its Perch
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 20, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} With THAT quote, Debelle rang loud and clear with a...
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The British Pound and Carney Are Deja Vu All Over Again
“There’s already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect… …The need for...
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A Closer Look At Lane’s Drive That Weakened the Canadian Dollar
There is nothing like a significantly stronger currency to get central banks to take pause. I cannot recall in recent memory a time where a little known (or under-appreciated?) Deputy Director of the...
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Rio Tinto Vs. BHP Billiton: A Pairs Trade for the RBA’s Top In Iron Ore
On September 19th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its last meeting on monetary policy (September 5, 2017). Iron ore was perhaps the biggest headline coming out of those...
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As the VIX Plunges to All-Time Lows, Speculators Abort Their Seasonal Gold...
A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on...
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With Inflation Low, the Reserve Bank of Australia Pushes on the Australian...
In mid-July, the Australian dollar (FXA) surged higher after a hawkish interpretation of the RBA minutes. Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), tried to walk the market...
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Forex Critical: A Speculative Breakout for the Euro
Speculators have not been this bullish on the euro since at least 2008. In the previous week, speculators pushed net long contracts on the euro to a new high for 2017… …and now net long positioning by...
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Canadian Dollar: Economic Data Overriding the Brakes of the Bank of Canada
The Canadian dollar (FXC) is at an interesting juncture. Strong economic data has strengthened the currency but the Bank of Canada (BoC) has applied brakes on currency’s rally. The Canadian dollar...
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Four Fed Rate Hikes This Year? Not Even Close
New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had his say with Congress this week and some of the conventional financial media and pundits have been shrill with speculation about the potential for four rate...
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Four Fed Rate Hikes This Year? Still Not Likely.
I heard commentary after the Fed’s proclamation on monetary policy on March 21st that the Fed is “one vote away” from 4 rate hikes this year. Yet, something strange happened along the way to...
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The Canadian Dollar: The Bank of Canada Keeps Applying the Brakes
Last June, 2017, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Carolyn A. Wilkins stepped onto the stage with a surprisingly bullish message about the Canadian economy. This speech set the stage...
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British Pound Hits A Post-Brexit Support In the Wake of Monetary Swirl
When U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin helped send the dollar careening with commentary welcoming a weak dollar, the British pound (FXB) surged enough against the then hapless U.S. dollar to make...
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The U.S. Dollar Idles While Rate Hike Odds and Trade Pressures Creep Higher
I am riding the long U.S. dollar index (DXY) trade based on two simple drivers: 1) a U.S. Federal Reserve pacing for four rate hikes in 2018, and 2) an expanding trade war, especially against China,...
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Powell Takes Some Air Out the Dollar, Boosts Gold and Silver
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last Friday that seemed to reassure financial markets. The S&P 500 (SPY) finally closed at a new all-time high, and...
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Australian Dollar: A Monetary Policy Statement Made for A Currency Rebound
In recent weeks, I have seen calls for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates. It's important to remember when the RBA moves to cut interest rates, there will probably be two (or...
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Above the 40 (December 17, 2018) – A Deeply Oversold Market No Longer Expects...
AT40 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2)AT200 = 15.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)VIX =...
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